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Solving problem N3741 Bayesian probability theory

Content: teorver_3741.doc (36.00 KB)
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3741. From the first machine comes to the assembly of 80% of parts, and from the second - 20% of the same parts. On the first machine, the defect is 1%, and on the second - 5%. Proven detail was defective. What is more likely: this part is made on the first machine or is it made on the second machine?
Detailed solution. Decorated in Microsoft Word 2003 (Quest decided to use the formula editor)
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